Malik Willis Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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NFL · Player Props

Malik Willis

QB · Tennessee Titans

Passing Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Houston Texans · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 24, 2022 9:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Malik Willis Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 118.5 (-113/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 126.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 118.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans defense has not been good when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 5.80 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-most in football.
The Houston Texans safeties grade out as the worst group of safeties in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Tennessee Titans have been faced with a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Tennessee Titans have incorporated play action on 30.3% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (7th-most in the NFL), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.
The Tennessee Titans have gone no-huddle on 11.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-most in football). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat production.

Favors Under

The Titans are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 40.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 122.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 52.9 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense this year: 7th-least in football.