Malik Willis Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Malik Willis

QB · Miami Dolphins

Completions

Minnesota Vikings vs Miami Dolphins · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 3:42 PM EST

Analysis

Malik Willis Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (+113/-150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ +113.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -10-point disadvantage, the Dolphins are heavy underdogs in this game, indicating much more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their usual game plan.
The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Dolphins as the 11th-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 56.2% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect the Dolphins to call the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 60.4 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The Dolphins have run the 2nd-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 52.2 plays per game.
Our trusted projections expect Malik Willis to throw 30.6 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the 2nd-fewest out of all QBs.
Opposing QBs teams have been reluctant to test the pass defense of the Minnesota Vikings, averaging the fewest attempts in football (a mere 29.3 per game) since the start of last season.