Malik Willis Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Malik Willis

NFL · Player Props

Malik Willis

QB · Miami Dolphins

Carries

Las Vegas Raiders vs Miami Dolphins · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 13, 2026 4:27 PM EST

Analysis

Malik Willis Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (+113/-113).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Dolphins to run on 45.8% of their plays: the 3rd-highest frequency among all teams this week.
In this week's contest, Malik Willis is expected by our trusted projection set to notch the 4th-most carries out of all quarterbacks with 6.7.
While Malik Willis has garnered 15.2% of his team's run game usage in games he has played last year, the projections expect him to be a more integral piece of Miami's run game in this game at 23.9%.

Favors Under

A passing game script is implied by the Dolphins being a -3-point underdog this week.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is expected by the model to see just 122.8 total plays called: the fewest among all games this week.
The 2nd-smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Miami Dolphins last year (a mere 51.7 per game on average).
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

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