Malik Heath Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Malik Heath

NFL · Player Props

Malik Heath

WR · Green Bay Packers

Receptions

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 24, 2023 3:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Malik Heath Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-185/+140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +170 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Packers being a huge -8.5-point underdog in this game.
The projections expect the Packers as the 2nd-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 64.3% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide.
The Green Bay offensive line ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
The Detroit Lions safeties project as the 6th-worst safety corps in football this year in pass coverage.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Packers to call the 2nd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.9 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The 9th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Packers this year (a lowly 56.1 per game on average).
Malik Heath has been not been very involved his team's offense, earning a Target Share of just 3.2% this year, which ranks him in the 15th percentile when it comes to WRs.
Malik Heath is positioned as one of the worst wide receivers in the game this year, averaging a measly 0.2 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 1st percentile among WRs.

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