Malik Davis Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Malik Davis

RB · Dallas Cowboys

Touchdowns

New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 11, 2026 4:19 PM EST

Analysis

Malik Davis Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+837/-2043).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Cowboys to be the 7th-most pass-centric team in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 59.5% red zone pass rate.
The leading projections forecast the Cowboys to call the 4th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.3 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The 2nd-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Dallas Cowboys last year (a colossal 60.6 per game on average).
Malik Davis has compiled a staggering 2.0 air yards per game last year: 90th percentile when it comes to running backs. (This may not sound very overwhelming, but most RBs average negative air yards due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage).
Last year, the shaky Giants pass defense has given up a staggering 87.2% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing running backs: the 4th-biggest rate in the league.

Favors Under

A rushing game script is suggested by the Cowboys being a 3-point favorite in this game.
The Dallas Cowboys have played in the 6th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league last year, which ought to mean reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced offense results when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.
With a bottom-tier 0.0% Red Zone Target Rate (1st percentile) last year, Malik Davis ranks among the pass-catching running backs with the least usage near the end zone in the league.
Malik Davis's 2.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive usage) grades out among the worst in football: 16th percentile for running backs.
When talking about pass protection (and the significance it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Cowboys ranks as the 2nd-worst in football last year.