Mack Hollins Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Mack Hollins

WR · New England Patriots

Touchdowns

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 4:32 PM EST

Analysis

Mack Hollins Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+308/-317).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
The model projects the New England Patriots to be the 7th-most pass-centric team in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 60.7% red zone pass rate.
Mack Hollins has accumulated a staggering 57.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 75th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
The Patriots offensive line profiles as the 4th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Mack Hollins's possession skills have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 71.5% to 82.6%.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the New England Patriots are projected by our trusted projection set to call only 61.3 total plays in this contest: the 3rd-lowest number among all teams this week.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Buffalo Bills, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in football (just 29.8 per game) since the start of last season.
The leading projections forecast Mack Hollins to be a much smaller part of his team's pass attack near the goal line in this week's game (17.0% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (44.4% in games he has played).
Since the start of last season, the fierce Buffalo Bills defense has given up a meager 0.75 TDs through the air per game to opposing wideouts: the 9th-lowest rate in the league.
Since the start of last season, the anemic Buffalo Bills run defense has allowed a colossal 1.30 rushing TDs per game to opposing offenses: the biggest rate in the NFL.