Mack Hollins Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Mack Hollins

WR · New England Patriots

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs New England Patriots · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 3:48 PM EST

Analysis

Mack Hollins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+155/-190).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -197 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -190.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
At the moment, the 10th-most pass-centric offense in football (62.0% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the New England Patriots.
The Jaguars defense has been a prominent pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing teams to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the NFL (36.4 per game) since the start of last season.
In regards to pass protection (and the strong impact it has on all air attack statistics), the O-line of the Patriots grades out as the 4th-best in the league since the start of last season.
With a stellar 73.1% Adjusted Catch% (87th percentile) since the start of last season, Mack Hollins has been as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL when it comes to wideouts.

Favors Under

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is predicted by the projections to see only 126.0 plays on offense run: the 5th-fewest on the slate this week.
Since the start of last season, the daunting Jacksonville Jaguars defense has allowed a measly 62.0% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing WRs: the 6th-lowest rate in football.
The Jaguars linebackers grade out as the best group of LBs in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.