Mack Hollins Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Mack Hollins

NFL · Player Props

Mack Hollins

WR · Atlanta Falcons

Receptions

Atlanta Falcons vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 12:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Mack Hollins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+125/-162).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -162.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 131.2 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The Falcons have run the 7th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 62.0 plays per game.
The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may slide.
This year, the porous Minnesota Vikings pass defense has been gouged for a massive 73.1% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing WRs: the 5th-worst rate in the league.

Favors Under

This week's spread indicates a rushing game script for the Falcons, who are favored by 3.5 points.
The model projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 4th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 53.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Mack Hollins's 44.5% Route% this year indicates a remarkable decrease in his pass game utilization over last year's 93.4% rate.
Mack Hollins's receiving performance has declined this season, compiling just 1.9 adjusted catches compared to 3.4 last season.
Mack Hollins's possession skills have declined this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate falling off from 64.2% to 56.1%.

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