Mack Hollins Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Mack Hollins

NFL · Player Props

Mack Hollins

WR · Atlanta Falcons

Receptions

Atlanta Falcons vs Houston Texans · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 5:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Mack Hollins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+155/-185).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -165 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -185.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to have 130.4 plays on offense run: the 4th-most among all games this week.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Falcons to pass on 53.2% of their plays: the 3rd-lowest rate among all teams this week.
Opposing QBs teams have been wary to rely on the passing game too much against the Texans, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 34.0 per game) this year.
Mack Hollins's 71.1% Route Participation% this season represents a a meaningful decline in his passing game volume over last season's 93.4% figure.
Mack Hollins's 1.6 adjusted receptions per game this year reflects a a remarkable decrease in his receiving ability over last year's 3.4 mark.
Mack Hollins's sure-handedness have declined this year, with his Adjusted Catch% falling off from 64.2% to 43.6%.

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