Mack Hollins Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

NFL · Player Props

Mack Hollins

WR · Las Vegas Raiders

Receptions

Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Mack Hollins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+104/-132).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +116 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Mack Hollins has been used less as a potential target this season (94.9% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (30.9%).
The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line grades out as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
Mack Hollins's receiving skills have improved this season, totaling 3.7 yards per game compared to just 1.1 last season.
Mack Hollins's receiving reliability have improved this year, with his Completion% jumping from 50.1% to 66.0%.

Favors Under

The Las Vegas Raiders will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.2% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the 9th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 10th-least in the NFL.
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Las Vegas Raiders have incorporated play action on a measly 16.4% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (least in the NFL), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.