Mack Hollins Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Mack Hollins

NFL · Player Props

Mack Hollins

WR · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 4:31 PM EST

Analysis

Mack Hollins Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Atlanta Falcons have called the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 62.0 plays per game.
Mack Hollins's ability to grind out extra yardage has been refined this year, accumulating 4.17 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a mere 2.51 mark last year.
This year, the shaky Tennessee Titans defense has allowed a staggering 175.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing wide receivers: the 8th-worst in the league.
This year, the weak Tennessee Titans pass defense has allowed a massive 75.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 3rd-worst rate in the league.
The Titans linebackers profile as the 7th-worst LB corps in football this year in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Atlanta Falcons as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 50.7% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Atlanta Falcons are predicted by our trusted projection set to run only 61.5 offensive plays in this game: the 5th-fewest among all teams this week.
Our trusted projections expect Mack Hollins to be a less important option in his offense's pass game this week (3.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (9.8% in games he has played).
Mack Hollins has posted significantly fewer air yards this year (44.0 per game) than he did last year (64.0 per game).
Mack Hollins's 27.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season conveys a substantial decrease in his receiving ability over last season's 42.0 mark.

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