Mack Hollins Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Mack Hollins

NFL · Player Props

Mack Hollins

WR · Las Vegas Raiders

Receiving Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 3:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Mack Hollins Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 38.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 38.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 38.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.
Mack Hollins has accumulated significantly more air yards this season (62.0 per game) than he did last season (27.0 per game).
The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line ranks as the 6th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all pass game stats across the board.
Mack Hollins has notched substantially more receiving yards per game (45.0) this season than he did last season (16.0).

Favors Under

The Las Vegas Raiders boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the 7th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Mack Hollins to be a much smaller piece of his offense's pass attack this week (13.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (19.0% in games he has played).
Mack Hollins has been among the worst wide receivers in football at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a lowly 2.87 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 18th percentile.
The New England Patriots pass defense has conceded the 5th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (63.2%) vs. WRs this year (63.2%).

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