Mack Hollins Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Mack Hollins

NFL · Player Props

Mack Hollins

WR · Las Vegas Raiders

Receiving TD

Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:26 AM EST

Analysis

Mack Hollins Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+270/-454).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -442 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -454.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.
Mack Hollins has accumulated significantly more air yards this season (62.0 per game) than he did last season (27.0 per game).
Mack Hollins's 44.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 14.6.
The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line ranks as the 6th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all pass game stats across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the 7th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots pass defense has conceded the 5th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (63.2%) vs. WRs this year (63.2%).
The New England Patriots defense has yielded the 4th-least passing TDs in the league to WRs: 0.62 per game this year.
The New England Patriots safeties grade out as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Las Vegas Raiders have used play action on a mere 16.4% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (least in football), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

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