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Mac Jones

Mac Jones TD Passes
Player Prop Week 14

Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Mac Jones TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-270/+210).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -240 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -270.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jaguars will be rolling with backup quarterback Mac Jones in this week's contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.

The Jaguars are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.

The Jacksonville O-line ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all passing game stats across the board.

This year, the deficient Titans defense has yielded a whopping 1.67 passing touchdowns per game to opposing QBs: the 9th-biggest rate in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects the Jaguars as the 7th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The Jaguars have been the 9th-least pass-heavy team in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year with a 49.6% red zone pass rate.

Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Jacksonville Jaguars are forecasted by the projection model to run only 63.2 total plays in this contest: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.

The fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the Jacksonville Jaguars this year (a measly 52.2 per game on average).

The projections expect Mac Jones to throw 32.5 passes this week, on balance: the 6th-fewest among all quarterbacks.

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