Mac Jones TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Mac Jones

NFL · Player Props

Mac Jones

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

TD Passes

Detroit Lions vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 11, 2024

Updated Nov 18, 2024 3:56 AM EST

Analysis

Mac Jones TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-210/+165).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -185 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -210.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jaguars may pass less in this game (and hand the ball off more) because they be rolling with backup quarterback Mac Jones.
At a -14-point disadvantage, the Jaguars are heavy underdogs in this game, indicating much more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their usual approach.
The leading projections forecast the Jaguars as the 2nd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 64.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.3 pass attempts per game against the Lions defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Jaguars have been the 5th-least pass-heavy team in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) this year with a 46.9% red zone pass rate.
The projections expect the Jaguars to run the 7th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.9 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have run the fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 51.7 plays per game.
This year, the stout Detroit Lions defense has conceded a puny 66.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 4th-best rate in the NFL.
The Lions defense has conceded the 3rd-fewest TDs through the air in the league: 0.78 per game this year.

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