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Mac Jones
NFL · Player Props
Mac Jones
QB · Jacksonville Jaguars
TD Passes
Detroit Lions vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 11, 2024 Updated Nov 18, 2024 3:56 AM EST
NFL Props Mac Jones TD Passes

Mac Jones TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-210/+165).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -185 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -210.

Favors Over
  • The Jaguars may pass less in this game (and hand the ball off more) because they be rolling with backup quarterback Mac Jones.
  • At a -14-point disadvantage, the Jaguars are heavy underdogs in this game, indicating much more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their usual approach.
  • The leading projections forecast the Jaguars as the 2nd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 64.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.3 pass attempts per game against the Lions defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.
Favors Under
  • The Jaguars have been the 5th-least pass-heavy team in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) this year with a 46.9% red zone pass rate.
  • The projections expect the Jaguars to run the 7th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.9 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have run the fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 51.7 plays per game.
  • This year, the stout Detroit Lions defense has conceded a puny 66.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 4th-best rate in the NFL.
  • The Lions defense has conceded the 3rd-fewest TDs through the air in the league: 0.78 per game this year.
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