Mac Jones TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Mac Jones

NFL · Player Props

Mac Jones

QB · New England Patriots

TD Passes

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 10:51 PM EST

Analysis

Mac Jones TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+150/-195).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +154 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a big 8.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
The predictive model expects the New England Patriots as the 8th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 61.0% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots offense to be the 4th-quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 26.32 seconds per play.
In this game, Mac Jones is forecasted by the model to total the 7th-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 37.2.
Mac Jones's 68.9% Adjusted Completion% this season conveys a noteworthy progression in his passing accuracy over last season's 64.5% rate.

Favors Under

When talking about pass protection (and the effect it has on all pass game stats), the O-line of the Patriots ranks as the 10th-worst in the league this year.
As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Miami's collection of safeties has been very good this year, ranking as the best in football.

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