Mac Jones TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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NFL · Player Props

Mac Jones

QB · New England Patriots

TD Passes

New England Patriots vs Chicago Bears · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 25, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Mac Jones TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+160/-210).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -210.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The New England Patriots offensive line ranks as the 5th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
Mac Jones has been among the most accurate quarterbacks in the league this year with an impressive 66.5% Completion%, checking in at the 79th percentile.
The Chicago Bears defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.51 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season.
The New England Patriots have faced a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Patriots are a massive 8.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 53.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Patriots have been the 7th-least pass-heavy offense in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) this year with a 49.4% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the least total plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have run the 8th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 55.7 plays per game.