Mac Jones TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Mac Jones

QB · New England Patriots

TD Passes

New England Patriots vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Mac Jones TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+159/-224).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -145 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -224.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing QBs have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game against the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.
The Baltimore Ravens defense has yielded the most TDs through the air in the league: 2.00 per game since the start of last season.
The Baltimore Ravens cornerbacks profile as the 4th-worst CB corps in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The New England Patriots have faced a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Baltimore Ravens have stacked the box versus opponents on 18.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 2nd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 57.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have run the 5th-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 60.6 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 10th-lowest level in the league against the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season (68.8%).
The New England Patriots O-line has allowed their QB just 2.53 seconds before the pass (8th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Baltimore Ravens defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 5th-fastest in the league since the start of last season.