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Mac Jones

Mac Jones TD Passes
Player Prop Week 2

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots

Mac Jones TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+160/-200).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Patriots rank as the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 96.7% red zone pass rate.

Mac Jones has been among the most accurate passers in the league since the start of last season with an impressive 68.4% Completion%, grading out in the 94th percentile.

The Pittsburgh Steelers safeties grade out as the 9th-worst unit in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

The New England Patriots have faced a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box against opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Patriots are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 9th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 56.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 121.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The New England Patriots have called the 5th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling just 60.3 plays per game.

THE BLITZ projects Mac Jones to attempt 33.2 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 7th-least of all quarterbacks.

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