Mac Jones TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Mac Jones

NFL · Player Props

Mac Jones

QB · New England Patriots

TD Passes

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 2, 2023 4:01 AM EST

Analysis

Mac Jones TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+120/-150).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 10th-most pass-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 63.4% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 9th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game against the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 4th-most in football.
The New England Patriots O-line profiles as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 10th-highest rate in football versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year (71.9%).

Favors Under

The Patriots are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
The New England Patriots have run the 3rd-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 53.9 plays per game.
Mac Jones's passing accuracy has declined this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 67.9% to 64.7%.
Mac Jones has been among the worst TD passers in football this year, averaging a paltry 0.75 per game while ranking in the 12th percentile.
The New England Patriots offensive line has afforded their quarterback a mere 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

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