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Mac Jones

Mac Jones TD Passes
Player Prop Week 1

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots

Mac Jones TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+139/-194).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -142 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -194.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Patriots are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.

Opposing QBs have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game against the Miami Dolphins defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in the league.

Mac Jones has been among the most on-target quarterbacks in football since the start of last season with an impressive 67.9% Completion%, grading out in the 90th percentile.

The New England Patriots have been faced with a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box vs. opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 10th-least pass-oriented offense in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 56.1% red zone pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the least total plays among all teams this week with 58.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The New England Patriots have called the 9th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a mere 60.7 plays per game.

THE BLITZ projects Mac Jones to attempt 33.6 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 3rd-least of all QBs.

The Miami Dolphins defense has given up the 6th-least touchdowns through the air in the NFL: 1.35 per game since the start of last season.

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