Mac Jones Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Mac Jones

NFL · Player Props

Mac Jones

QB · New England Patriots

Rushing Yards

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 7:38 PM UTC

Analysis

Mac Jones Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-105/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 7.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots have been the 8th-most run-oriented team in the league (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 39.7% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Mac Jones to be a more important option in his team's run game this week (10.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (4.5% in games he has played).
The New England Patriots O-line grades out as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season at opening holes for runners.
The New England Patriots have used some form of misdirection on 52.8% of their play-calls since the start of last season (8th-most in the league), which masks an offenses true intentions and may make them more effective.

Favors Under

The Patriots are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the least total plays among all teams this week with 58.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have called the 9th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a mere 60.7 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Mac Jones to garner 2.4 rush attempts in this week's game, on average: the 4th-least of all quarterbacks.
Mac Jones has generated a mere 6.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the lowest marks in the league among QBs (24th percentile).

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