Mac Jones Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Mac Jones

NFL · Player Props

Mac Jones

QB · New England Patriots

Passing Yards

New England Patriots vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 6:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Mac Jones Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 208.5 (-115/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 211.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 208.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots offense as the 7th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.53 seconds per snap.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 7th-highest level in football versus the Indianapolis Colts defense this year (73.5%).
The Indianapolis Colts defense has struggled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 6.80 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-most in football.
The Indianapolis Colts linebackers project as the 7th-worst unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The New England Patriots have gone up against a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Patriots are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 5th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 54.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Mac Jones to attempt 33.8 passes in this contest, on average: the 7th-least of all QBs.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.0 pass attempts per game versus the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 4th-least in football.

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