My Account Log Out

reorder

Mac Jones

Mac Jones Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 18

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots

Mac Jones Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 249.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 214.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 249.5 @ -114.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Patriots are a big 8.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 6th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots offense to be the 8th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.83 seconds per play.

THE BLITZ projects Mac Jones to attempt 38.8 passes in this game, on average: the 5th-most of all quarterbacks.

The New England Patriots O-line grades out as the 9th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all air attack metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Mac Jones's passing precision has worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 67.9% to 64.3%.

The Buffalo Bills pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency this year, giving up 7.28 yards-per-target: the 6th-least in football.

The Buffalo Bills defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.23 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-least in the league.

The Buffalo Bills linebackers profile as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

The New England Patriots O-line has allowed their QB a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.

More Mac Jones Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™