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Mac Jones

Mac Jones Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 17

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins

Mac Jones Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 233.5 (-113/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 220.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 233.5 @ -113.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 10th-most pass-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 63.4% pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 9th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Opposing teams have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game against the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 4th-most in football.

The New England Patriots O-line profiles as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all pass game statistics across the board.

Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the 5th-most yards in football (260.0 per game) vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Patriots are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.

The New England Patriots have run the 3rd-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 53.9 plays per game.

Mac Jones's passing accuracy has declined this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 67.9% to 64.7%.

The Miami Dolphins defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.53 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-least in football.

The New England Patriots offensive line has afforded their quarterback a mere 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

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