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Mac Jones

Mac Jones Pass Attempts
Player Prop Week 18

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots

Mac Jones Pass Attempts Prop is currently Over/Under 36.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 33.5 @ -122 before it was bet up to 36.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Patriots are a big 8.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 6th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots offense to be the 8th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.83 seconds per play.

THE BLITZ projects Mac Jones to attempt 38.8 passes in this game, on average: the 5th-most of all quarterbacks.

The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The New England Patriots have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.6% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (3rd-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

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