Mac Jones Interceptions - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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NFL · Player Props

Mac Jones

QB · New England Patriots

Interceptions

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Mac Jones Interceptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+100/-134).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +112 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 10th-most pass-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 63.4% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 9th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game against the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 4th-most in football.
The New England Patriots O-line profiles as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
The Miami Dolphins have intercepted 0.53 throws per game this year, grading out as the 7th-worst defense in football by this statistic

Favors Under

The Patriots are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
The New England Patriots have run the 3rd-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 53.9 plays per game.
The New England Patriots offensive line has afforded their quarterback a mere 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Miami Dolphins defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 3rd-fastest in the league since the start of last season.
The New England Patriots have gone no-huddle on just 2.6% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.