Mac Jones Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Mac Jones

NFL · Player Props

Mac Jones

QB · New England Patriots

Completions

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 18, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Mac Jones Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 22.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 22.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots rank as the 7th-most pass-oriented team in the league (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 68.6% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 8th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Mac Jones to attempt 38.0 passes this week, on average: the 6th-most of all quarterbacks.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game against the Miami Dolphins defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in football.

Favors Under

The New England Patriots have run the 6th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a measly 55.0 plays per game.
The Miami Dolphins linebackers profile as the 9th-best unit in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.

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