Mac Jones Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Mac Jones

NFL · Player Props

Mac Jones

QB · New England Patriots

Carries

New York Jets vs New England Patriots · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 4:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Mac Jones Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-120/-109).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +125 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -109.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Patriots have been the 5th-least run-heavy team in the NFL (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 33.5% run rate.
The New England Patriots have called the 6th-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a measly 55.6 plays per game.
The New York Jets defensive ends grade out as the 4th-best DE corps in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.

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