Luke Schoonmaker Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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NFL · Player Props

Luke Schoonmaker

TE · Dallas Cowboys

Touchdowns

Dallas Cowboys vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 8, 2026

Updated Oct 30, 2026 2:49 PM EST

Analysis

Luke Schoonmaker Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1075/-2041).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Cowboys as the 6th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Right now, the 9th-most pass-oriented team in the league near the end zone (58.7% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Dallas Cowboys.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by our trusted projection set to have 130.9 plays on offense called: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
This year, the shaky Cardinals defense has been torched for a colossal 0.71 receiving TDs per game to opposing tight ends: the 5th-worst rate in football.

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a running game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 30.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Cardinals defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the league.
With a middling 0.0% Red Zone Target% (1st percentile) this year, Luke Schoonmaker stands as one of the tight ends with the highest volume near the end zone in football.
Luke Schoonmaker's 2.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 8.1.
Luke Schoonmaker rates as one of the most unreliable receivers in the league among tight ends, catching just 62.3% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, grading out in the 5th percentile.