Luke Schoonmaker Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Luke Schoonmaker

TE · Dallas Cowboys

Touchdowns

Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 8, 2026 9:12 PM EST

Analysis

Luke Schoonmaker Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1329/-1438).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Dallas Cowboys as the 9th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 59.1% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
At the moment, the 10th-most pass-oriented offense in the league in the red zone (59.2% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Cowboys.
The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.
As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense stats), the O-line of the Cowboys grades out as the 8th-best in football this year.
This year, the deficient Buccaneers defense has given up a staggering 0.75 receiving TDs per game to opposing tight ends: the 6th-largest rate in the league.

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a huge 9-point favorite in this game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The predictive model expects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 5th-most sluggish paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 29.28 seconds per play.
Luke Schoonmaker has been not been very involved his team's offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of just 0.0% this year, which ranks him in the 1st percentile among TEs.
Luke Schoonmaker is positioned as one of the least sure-handed receivers in football among tight ends, hauling in a measly 60.8% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, ranking in the 3rd percentile.
The receiving touchdown field reads "0" on Luke Schoonmaker's player page since the start of last season.