Luke Schoonmaker Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Luke Schoonmaker

TE · Dallas Cowboys

Touchdowns

Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders · Week 2, 2026

Updated Sep 20, 2026 4:02 PM EST

Analysis

Luke Schoonmaker Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1242/-1683).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +1776 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +1242.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the moment, the 7th-most pass-centric offense in football near the goal line (58.7% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Dallas Cowboys.
Our trusted projections expect the Cowboys offense to be the 5th-fastest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 27.12 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Since the start of last season, the porous Commanders pass defense has been gouged for a colossal 80.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 4th-highest rate in the NFL.
The Commanders defense has conceded the 2nd-most touchdowns through the air in the league to tight ends: 0.78 per game since the start of last season.

Favors Under

With a 4-point advantage, the Cowboys are favored in this week's game, indicating more of a reliance on running than their standard approach.
Luke Schoonmaker has been has not been looked to very often his team's pass game near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of just 1.8% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 21st percentile among TEs.
In regards to pocket protection (and the effect it has on all passing offense statistics), the O-line of the Dallas Cowboys grades out as the 2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season.
Luke Schoonmaker comes in as one of the most unreliable receivers in the NFL among tight ends, completing just 59.1% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, ranking in the 17th percentile.
The receiving TD column reads "0" on the back of Luke Schoonmaker's trading card since the start of last season.