Luke Schoonmaker Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Luke Schoonmaker

NFL · Player Props

Luke Schoonmaker

TE · Dallas Cowboys

Touchdowns

New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 13, 2026 8:12 PM EST

Analysis

Luke Schoonmaker Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1400/-1850).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Cowboys to be the 7th-most pass-centric team in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 59.5% red zone pass rate.
The leading projections forecast the Cowboys to call the 4th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.1 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The 2nd-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Dallas Cowboys last year (a colossal 60.6 per game on average).
Still weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being called for in this game) usually correlate with better passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased air attack volume, and reduced rush volume.
When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, New York's safety corps has been awful last year, grading out as the 9th-worst in the league.

Favors Under

A rushing game script is suggested by the Cowboys being a 3-point favorite in this game.
With a meager 1.9% Red Zone Target Share (20th percentile) last year, Luke Schoonmaker rates as one of the tight ends with the most usage near the end zone in the NFL.
When talking about pass protection (and the significance it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Cowboys ranks as the 2nd-worst in football last year.
With a poor 57.6% Adjusted Catch% (14th percentile) last year, Luke Schoonmaker places among the most hard-handed receivers in the league among TEs.
The receiving touchdown field reads "0" on the back of Luke Schoonmaker's trading card last year.

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