Luke Musgrave Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Luke Musgrave

NFL · Player Props

Luke Musgrave

TE · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Luke Musgrave Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (-104/-131).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 27.5 @ -131 before it was bet down to 26.5 @ -131.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects this game to have the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The predictive model expects Luke Musgrave to garner 5.2 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 82nd percentile when it comes to tight ends.
Luke Musgrave has been a big part of his team's pass game, garnering a Target Share of 15.2% this year, which puts him in the 82nd percentile when it comes to TEs.
When it comes to air yards, Luke Musgrave ranks in the towering 84th percentile among TEs this year, averaging a superb 31.0 per game.
With a terrific 31.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (75th percentile) this year, Luke Musgrave has been among the top pass-game tight ends in the league.

Favors Under

The Green Bay Packers have called the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 53.2 plays per game.
Opposing teams teams have been wary to pass too much against the Vikings, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 34.0 per game) this year.
The Minnesota Vikings defense has conceded the 10th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 41.0) vs. tight ends this year.
The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has exhibited good efficiency versus TEs this year, surrendering 5.63 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 6th-fewest in the NFL.
The Vikings safeties rank as the 3rd-best unit in the league this year in defending receivers.

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