Logan Thomas Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Logan Thomas

NFL · Player Props

Logan Thomas

TE · Washington Commanders

Receptions

New York Giants vs Washington Commanders · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Logan Thomas Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+107/-139).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +135 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +107.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Washington Commanders offensive approach to tilt 13.0% more towards the passing game than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy now calling the plays.
The predictive model expects the Commanders as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.1% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The model projects Logan Thomas to accrue 5.0 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 85th percentile when it comes to TEs.
With a high 15.0% Target Rate (84th percentile) this year, Logan Thomas ranks among the TEs with the highest volume in football.
The Commanders O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all air attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

This week's line suggests a rushing game script for the Commanders, who are favored by 3 points.
The leading projections forecast the Commanders to call the 8th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.0 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses teams have been wary to pass too much against the Giants, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 29.5 per game) this year.
The Giants pass defense has conceded the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (62.7%) vs. tight ends this year (62.7%).

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