Logan Thomas Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Logan Thomas

NFL · Player Props

Logan Thomas

TE · Washington Commanders

Receptions

Denver Broncos vs Washington Commanders · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 18, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Logan Thomas Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 9.6% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Commanders are a 3.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 9th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 61.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Washington Commanders have run the 3rd-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 62.3 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Logan Thomas to accrue 5.1 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 88th percentile among TEs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Commanders to call the 9th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Washington Commanders offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Logan Thomas's receiving reliability have tailed off this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 66.8% to 50.9%.
The Denver Broncos linebackers grade out as the 8th-best unit in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

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