Logan Thomas Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Logan Thomas

NFL · Player Props

Logan Thomas

TE · Washington Commanders

Receptions

Washington Commanders vs New York Giants · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Logan Thomas Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 14.0% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Washington Commanders to pass on 61.0% of their opportunities: the 5th-highest rate on the slate this week.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by our trusted projection set to have 130.3 total plays called: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week.
The 10th-highest number of plays in football have been run by the Commanders this year (a monstrous 60.0 per game on average).
Logan Thomas has run a route on 76.4% of his offense's passing plays this year, ranking him in the 88th percentile when it comes to tight ends.

Favors Under

An extreme running game script is implied by the Commanders being a huge 7.5-point favorite this week.
Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to pass too much against the New York Giants, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in football (just 33.7 per game) this year.
This year, the daunting Giants defense has conceded a measly 61.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the best rate in the league.
As it relates to linebackers in covering receivers, New York's group of LBs has been phenomenal this year, grading out as the 9th-best in the NFL.

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