Logan Thomas Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Logan Thomas

NFL · Player Props

Logan Thomas

TE · Washington Commanders

Receptions

Washington Commanders vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 7, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Logan Thomas Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+113/-149).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +114 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +113.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders will be rolling out backup QB Taylor Heinicke in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Commanders are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Washington Commanders have called the 6th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a colossal 62.2 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Logan Thomas to accrue 4.1 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 78th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 55.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Logan Thomas has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (60.2% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (82.5%).
The Washington Commanders O-line profiles as the 2nd-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
Logan Thomas's ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 72.2% to 63.6%.
The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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