Logan Thomas Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Logan Thomas

NFL · Player Props

Logan Thomas

TE · Washington Commanders

Receptions

Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Logan Thomas Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+132/-170).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -166 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -170.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders are a 6-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 5th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 62.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 126.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Logan Thomas to garner 4.8 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 88th percentile among TEs.
Logan Thomas's 38.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the league: 94th percentile for TEs.

Favors Under

The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Logan Thomas's ball-catching skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 72.2% to 60.0%.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.40 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 7th-fastest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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