Logan Thomas Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Logan Thomas

NFL · Player Props

Logan Thomas

TE · Washington Commanders

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs Washington Commanders · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 25, 2022 2:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Logan Thomas Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+126/-162).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +154 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +126.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
The Washington Commanders have called the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 62.4 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.4 pass attempts per game versus the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Logan Thomas to earn 3.9 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 76th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 57.2% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Commanders to run the 5th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Logan Thomas has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (64.4% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (82.5%).
The Washington Commanders offensive line profiles as the 3rd-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all air attack stats across the board.
Logan Thomas's receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 72.2% to 60.8%.

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