Logan Thomas Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Logan Thomas

NFL · Player Props

Logan Thomas

TE · Washington Commanders

Receptions

Houston Texans vs Washington Commanders · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 6:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Logan Thomas Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-254/+178).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -139 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -254.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders will be rolling with backup QB Taylor Heinicke this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Houston Texans safeties rank as the worst collection of safeties in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Washington Commanders O-line has allowed their QB 2.75 seconds before the pass (2nd-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
The Washington Commanders have utilized play action on 34.1% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (most in the league), tricking the defense into thinking it's a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Commanders are an enormous 11.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 5th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 51.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders offense as the 7th-worst paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 29.11 seconds per play.
Opposing teams have averaged 31.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense this year: 4th-least in the league.
Logan Thomas has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (62.9% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (82.5%).

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