Logan Thomas Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Logan Thomas

TE · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Chicago Bears · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 5, 2023 11:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Logan Thomas Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-130/-100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 28.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 28.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 11.3% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The model projects the Washington Commanders to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 65.4% pass rate.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The model projects Logan Thomas to accrue 4.5 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 77th percentile when it comes to TEs.
Logan Thomas has put up a colossal 30.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 85th percentile when it comes to tight ends.

Favors Under

The Commanders are a 6-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to see only 121.7 offensive plays called: the 2nd-fewest out of all the games this week.
Opposing teams teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the Bears, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 34.0 per game) this year.
With a poor 3.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (17th percentile) since the start of last season, Logan Thomas ranks as one of the best TEs in the pass game in football in picking up extra yardage.
This year, the tough Bears pass defense has yielded the least yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing tight ends: a meager 3.2 YAC.