Logan Thomas Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Logan Thomas

NFL · Player Props

Logan Thomas

TE · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Cleveland Browns · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 6:06 PM EST

Analysis

Logan Thomas Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-143/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 25.5 @ -143.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders offense to be the 4th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.42 seconds per play.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Logan Thomas to total 5.2 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 86th percentile among tight ends.
Logan Thomas has totaled a whopping 30.0 air yards per game this year: 83rd percentile among tight ends.
The Cleveland Browns pass defense has struggled when opposing TEs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 6.02 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-most in football.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 11th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game against the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 3rd-least in the league.
Logan Thomas has been used less as a potential target this season (66.0% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (82.5%).
The Washington Commanders offensive line profiles as the worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
Logan Thomas's possession skills have declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 72.2% to 62.6%.

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