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Logan Thomas

Logan Thomas Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 17

Washington Commanders vs Cleveland Browns

 
 
 
Logan Thomas Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-143/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 25.5 @ -143.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders offense to be the 4th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.42 seconds per play.
  • The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • THE BLITZ projects Logan Thomas to total 5.2 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 86th percentile among tight ends.
  • Logan Thomas has totaled a whopping 30.0 air yards per game this year: 83rd percentile among tight ends.
  • The Cleveland Browns pass defense has struggled when opposing TEs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 6.02 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-most in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 11th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game against the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 3rd-least in the league.
  • Logan Thomas has been used less as a potential target this season (66.0% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (82.5%).
  • The Washington Commanders offensive line profiles as the worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
  • Logan Thomas's possession skills have declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 72.2% to 62.6%.

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