Logan Thomas Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Logan Thomas

NFL · Player Props

Logan Thomas

TE · Washington Commanders

Receiving TD

Washington Commanders vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 7, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Logan Thomas Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+366/-733).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +384 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +366.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Washington Commanders have called the 6th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a colossal 62.2 plays per game.
Logan Thomas has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 12.5% this year, which puts him in the 79th percentile among TEs.
Logan Thomas has posted a colossal 30.0 air yards per game this year: 86th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

Logan Thomas's 22.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 42.1.
The Washington Commanders O-line profiles as the 2nd-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
Logan Thomas's ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 72.2% to 63.6%.
The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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