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Logan Thomas

Logan Thomas Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 5

Washington Commanders vs Tennessee Titans

Logan Thomas Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+386/-803).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +412 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +386.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Washington Commanders have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 67.0 plays per game.

Opposing teams have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game against the Tennessee Titans defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.

Logan Thomas has been heavily involved in his team's pass game near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 13.6% this year, which ranks him in the 81st percentile among tight ends.

Logan Thomas has put up a colossal 38.0 air yards per game this year: 91st percentile among tight ends.

Logan Thomas grades out in the 77th percentile among tight ends as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging a terrific 0.25 per game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Commanders to run the 2nd-least total plays among all teams this week with 62.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Logan Thomas's 26.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 42.1.

The Washington Commanders offensive line profiles as the 10th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all air attack statistics across the board.

Logan Thomas's ball-catching skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% falling off from 72.2% to 64.5%.

The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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