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Logan Thomas

Logan Thomas Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 4

Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders

Logan Thomas Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+430/-750).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Commanders are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 3rd-quickest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 26.71 seconds per play.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in the league.

Logan Thomas has been a big part of his team's offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 17.6% this year, which ranks him in the 89th percentile among tight ends.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Logan Thomas's 26.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 42.1.

Logan Thomas's possession skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 72.2% to 60.0%.

The Dallas Cowboys defense has allowed the 9th-least touchdowns through the air in football to TEs: 0.30 per game since the start of last season.

The Dallas Cowboys safeties profile as the 8th-best safety corps in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

The Dallas Cowboys pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 5th-fastest in the league since the start of last season.

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