Logan Thomas Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Logan Thomas

TE · Washington Commanders

Receiving TD

Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Logan Thomas Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+249/-413).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +319 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +249.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders are a 6-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 126.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Logan Thomas has put up a whopping 54.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 95th percentile among tight ends.
Logan Thomas's 38.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the league: 94th percentile for TEs.
The Washington Commanders O-line ranks as the 6th-best in football since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all pass game metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Logan Thomas to be a less important option in his offense's pass attack near the goal line this week (17.2% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (23.3% in games he has played).
Logan Thomas's ball-catching skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 72.2% to 60.0%.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.40 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 7th-fastest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.