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Logan Thomas

Logan Thomas Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 2

Detroit Lions vs Washington Commanders

Logan Thomas Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+272/-459).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -457 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -459.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders offense to be the 9th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.30 seconds per snap.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

Logan Thomas has put up a colossal 53.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 95th percentile among TEs.

Logan Thomas's 40.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the league: 94th percentile for tight ends.

The Washington Commanders O-line grades out as the 6th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all pass attack stats across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Opposing teams have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game against the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the NFL.

THE BLITZ projects Logan Thomas to be a less important option in his team's passing offense near the end zone this week (16.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (28.6% in games he has played).

Logan Thomas's possession skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% falling off from 72.2% to 62.7%.

The Washington Commanders have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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