Logan Thomas Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Logan Thomas

TE · Washington Commanders

Receiving TD

Washington Commanders vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Logan Thomas Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+343/-659).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -437 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -659.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 7th-fastest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 26.90 seconds per play.
Logan Thomas has accounted for a monstrous 24.6% of his team's air yards since the start of last season: 97th percentile among TEs.
Logan Thomas's 42.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the league leaders: 93rd percentile for TEs.
The Washington Commanders offensive line ranks as the 5th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers project as the 9th-worst collection of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The Commanders are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.0 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 4th-least in football.
THE BLITZ projects Logan Thomas to be a much smaller piece of his team's pass attack near the end zone this week (13.4% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (27.8% in games he has played).
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has conceded the 9th-least touchdowns through the air in the league to tight ends: 0.29 per game since the start of last season.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.