Leonard Fournette Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 19

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Leonard Fournette

NFL · Player Props

Leonard Fournette

RB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rushing Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 19, 2022

Updated Jan 19, 2023 4:28 PM UTC

Analysis

Leonard Fournette Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 37.5 (-145/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 35.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 37.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 143.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 63.8 plays per game.
The Dallas Cowboys defensive tackles rank as the worst unit in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have gone no-huddle on 12.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-most in the NFL). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat-padding.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have utilized motion in their offense on 45.6% of their plays since the start of last season (10th-most in football), which usually keeps the defense guessing and improves offensive efficiency.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 31.6% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to be a much smaller part of his offense's running game this week (42.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (56.4% in games he has played).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line grades out as the worst in the NFL this year in run blocking.

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